TLDR 

MARKET RECAP → Stocks ticked higher in a volatile Monday session, lifted by a tech rally after President Donald Trump unexpectedly granted a tariff exemption.

MORE THAN 60% OF CEOS EXPECT A RECESSION IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS →📉 CEOs sounded the alarm, with 62% now bracing for a recession—thanks to tariff chaos, rising costs, and profit expectations that just fell off a cliff.

BILLIONAIRE RAY DALIO: ‘I’M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING WORSE THAN A RECESSION’ → 📉 Ray Dalio said Trump’s tariff chaos and rising U.S. debt could spark a breakdown in the global monetary system—something far messier than a plain old recession.

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TODAY’S TOP NEWS

More Than 60% Of CEOs Expect A Recession In The Next 6 Months

📉 Recession radar was flashing red: A new Chief Executive survey showed 62% of CEOs expected a recession within six months, up sharply from 48% in March—fueled by Trump’s tariff drama and market volatility.

💸 Tariffs spooked the C-suite: Around 75% of surveyed execs said Trump’s import duties would hurt their business this year, with half expecting double-digit cost hikes. Only 37% expected profits to rise—a steep fall from 76% in January.

📊 Outlook hit pandemic-era lows: CEO confidence in current business conditions dropped 9% in April to levels not seen since 2020. A slim majority still expected conditions to improve over the next year, boosted by temporary tariff exemptions for some tech imports.

TODAY’S TOP NEWS

Billionaire Ray Dalio: ‘I’m Worried About Something Worse Than A Recession’

📉 Sounding the alarm: Ray Dalio warned that Trump’s tariff policies, rising U.S. debt, and a shift from multilateralism could spark a breakdown in the global monetary system, not just a recession. He stressed the world is moving toward a “unilateral order” marked by greater conflict and instability.

🧨 Policy problems piling up: While Dalio agreed with the need to address trade imbalances, he criticized the execution, saying Trump’s aggressive approach has been “very disruptive.” The patchy rollout of tariffs — including a last-minute partial exemption for Chinese electronics — only added to the uncertainty.

💣 Bigger than '08?: Dalio argued the U.S. is approaching a tipping point — with debt outpacing demand and trust in money eroding. If Congress doesn’t cut the deficit and policymakers fail to coordinate globally, he said the next shock could make the 2008 financial crisis look tame.

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