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TLDR
MARKET RECAP → The S&P 500 (VOO) fell Friday as news broke that the US would impose tariffs against major trading partners effective Saturday, February 1st.
TRUMP'S NEW TARIFFS SET TO BEGIN → The U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China starting Saturday, aiming to address concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Economists warn of potential higher consumer prices and strained relations with key allies.
DECEMBER PCE INFLATION SHOWS MODEST INCREASE → 📈 The PCE price index rose 0.4% in December, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%, slightly above expectations and indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
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TODAY’S TOP NEWS
Trump's New Tariffs Set to Begin
Tariffs Imposed on Key Trade Partners: The White House has announced that starting Saturday, the U.S. will implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, aiming to address concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
Potential Impact on Oil Imports: Canada and Mexico are significant suppliers of oil to the U.S., providing 3.9 million and 733,000 barrels per day, respectively, in 2023. The new tariffs could disrupt these imports, potentially affecting domestic oil prices.
Economic and Political Reactions: Economists warn that these tariffs may lead to higher consumer prices and strained relations with key allies. Canada and Mexico have signaled possible retaliatory measures, emphasizing the deep economic ties and the potential for significant disruption.
TODAY’S TOP NEWS
December PCE Inflation Shows Modest Increase
Slight Uptick in Inflation: 📈 The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose by 0.4% in December, bringing the annual rate to 2.9%. This increase was slightly above market expectations and indicates persistent inflationary pressures.
Core Inflation Remains Elevated: 🔍 Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE index increased by 0.2% for the month, with the annual core rate dipping marginally to 3.2% from 3.3% in November. This suggests that underlying inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
Market Reactions and Fed Outlook: 📉 Following the report, U.S. stocks surged, and Treasury yields declined as investors anticipated potential adjustments in Federal Reserve policy. Despite the uptick, Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, emphasized the need for sustained progress toward the 2% inflation goal before considering further rate cuts.
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