MARKET RECAP → Stocks extended their two-day relief rally on the heels of geopolitical tensions surfacing in Davos.

📈 INFLATION FED UP AT 2.8% → PCE data show inflation holding stubbornly above target, propping up consumer spending and pushing the Fed toward a cautious policy stance rather than aggressive rate cuts.

📉 INTEL BEAT, THEN BLEW IT → Intel topped Q4 forecasts but its weak Q1 guidance and structural challenges tempered the win — a classic beat-and-fade that leaves investors parsing growth drivers vs. near-term headwinds.

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For the week beginning January 19, 2026

🔥 Core PCE remains stubborn: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — showed inflation at about 2.8% year-over-year in November 2025, slightly above the Fed’s long-standing 2% target and a tick up from prior months. Both headline and core readings (excluding food and energy) remained elevated, signaling that price pressures have not eased as much as some economists hoped.

📊 Consumer spending keeps pressure on prices: U.S. consumer spending continued to grow — retail and services outpaced expectations — helping sustain inflation near these levels. Even with some cooling in goods prices, sticky shelter and services costs helped keep the overall inflation rate elevated.

🏦 Implications for the Fed and markets: Because November’s PCE readings are still above the Fed’s 2% goal, markets are now pricing a high probability of no near-term rate cuts at the upcoming Fed meeting, with policymakers likely to remain cautious before easing policy further. The persistent inflation picture also strengthens the argument that inflation isn’t collapsing fast, meaning the central bank’s pivot to rate cuts could be more measured.

📊 Quarterly results beat expectations — Intel (INTC) reported Q4 2025 revenue of about $13.7 billion, slightly above Street forecasts, and adjusted earnings of $0.15 per share, topping consensus (~$0.08). Despite a year-over-year revenue decline, Intel exceeded estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the quarter, reflecting progress in its turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan.

📉 Guidance sours the mood — Investors were less enthused about Intel’s first-quarter 2026 outlook, which forecasts revenue roughly below expectations and breakeven adjusted EPS, weaker than analysts’ projections. That outlook overshadowed the Q4 beat and triggered share weakness in after-hours and pre-market trading.

🤖 Underlying segment trends mixed — Intel’s Data Center & AI segment grew, while Client Computing Group revenue lagged, illustrating ongoing challenges in PC demand and competitive pressure from rivals like AMD and Nvidia. Intel also continues to navigate supply chain constraints even as it ramps new products such as its 18A process chips.

Zelenskyy lays into ‘lost’ Europe for trying to ‘change’ Trump and not dealing with global threats (CNBC)

GM to move production of China-built Buick SUV to U.S. plant (CNBC)

Fed’s main gauge shows inflation at 2.8% in November, edging further away from target (CNBC)

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