TLDR

MARKET RECAP → Markets Tuesday were mixed as investors digested earnings and trade news: the S&P 500 (VOO) edged up, hitting a record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose on strength in industrials. The Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) slipped, weighed down by tech stocks.

RATE CUT HOPES FACE REALITY → Bank of America (BAC) says the Fed likely won’t cut rates in 2025 unless a major slowdown hits, pushing markets to rethink their bets on easing.

BIG TECH, BIGGER BETS → Big Tech earnings kick off amid AI hype, geopolitical trade woes, and investor pressure to show real ROI.

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MARKETS

Market Snapshot

Today’s S&P 500 Heatmap

Notable Earnings This Week

POLL OF THE DAY

Economy

Rate Cut Hopes Face Reality

BofA warns of no cuts: Bank of America (BAC) says the Fed may not lower rates this year as core PCE inflation is projected to climb to 3% over the summer and unemployment edged down slightly to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May. These figures keep the central bank in a holding pattern.

Markets pull back expectations: Traders who were betting on two cuts in 2025 are now less confident. Fed funds futures show just over a 50% chance of a September cut, reflecting the growing uncertainty.

Credibility risk for the Fed: BofA cautions that moving too soon could undermine the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, especially as consumer spending and job markets remain resilient.

Tech

Big Tech, Bigger Bets

Q2 Earnings Will Test Tech's Rally: With Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting Wednesday, a wave of megacap earnings will determine if the Nasdaq’s rebound, now +8% YTD, has staying power. Investors are hunting for signs that AI investment is bearing fruit and that U.S.–China trade tensions won’t derail profit margins.

AI Hype Meets Reality Check: From Meta (META) splurging on top AI talent and a new supercluster to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure growth and Alphabet’s $75B cloud push, Wall Street wants proof these bets are more than speculative mania. Analysts warn that platform leadership in AI is still “highly competitive” and monetization remains an open question.

Tariffs Still Haunt Global Tech: Trump’s erratic trade policies loom large. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet have all cited strained global supply chains and weaker Asia-Pacific ad and hardware revenue. Even Tesla’s (TSLA) robotaxi buzz is overshadowed by crumbling EV sales and political drama between Elon Musk and Trump.

BULL VS. BEAR

KEEP READING

Microsoft poaches more Google DeepMind AI talent as it beefs up Copilot (CNBC)

Opendoor shares turn negative as hyped real estate stock fails to sustain meme rally (CNBC)

Day-Trading Restraints to Be Loosened Under Proposed Rule Change (Yahoo Finance)

Coinbase and PNC to work together as crypto reaches for Main Street (Yahoo Finance)

21-year-old MIT dropouts raise $32M at $300M valuation led by Insight (TechCrunch)

How to Save for a Vacation: Complete Guide to Making That Dream Trip Happen (ML)

NOTABLE POSTS

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OUR FAVORITE TOOLS & RESOURCES

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• OpenBB — AI-powered research and analytics workspace

• Earnings Hub — Earnings calendar

• Quiver Quantitative — Quiver allows retail investors to tap into the power of big data with insights into things like congressional trades as they are disclosed

• Perplexity — Perplexity AI is an AI-chatbot-powered research and conversational search engine

• The Market Ear — Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading

• Coinmarketcap.com — Crypto market data

• Finviz — Financial visualizations

• Trading Economics — Economic calendar

• CME FedWatch Tool — Market-implied probabilities of future levels of interest rates 

• Dataroma — Track stock picks and portfolios of legendary value investors such as Warren Buffett

• ChatGPT — Large language model-based chatbot powered by generative AI

• Vimcal — Lightning-fast calendar and AI scheduling assistant

• AltIndex — Alternative datasets to uncover unique insights

• GFR Smart Stock Selector — Filters stocks to help investor choices

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