🧾MARKET RECAP → On Wednesday, stocks surged as the latest ADP jobs data (Nov) bolstered investors' confidence that the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates in the coming week.

💡 MICROSOFT’S AI REALITY CHECK → Microsoft’s (MSFT) AI Foundry demand is real but revenue is lagging as enterprises move slower than expected; the long-term AI thesis holds, but near-term sales won’t be linear.

⏳ U.S. WON’T DROP TARIFFS → Even if the Supreme Court strikes the current version, the administration has backup legal tools to reassemble a similar tariff regime — keeping trade pressure firmly in place.

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For the week beginning December 01, 2025

💸 AI Foundry isn’t printing money (yet): Microsoft (MSFT) is seeing softer-than-expected revenue from its AI Foundry business, the unit that helps enterprises build custom AI models. Early customer enthusiasm hasn’t fully converted into sales, signaling that big AI budgets are taking longer to materialize than the hype cycle suggested.

🏗️ Enterprises want results, not experiments: Companies are still kicking the tires — testing prototypes, evaluating ROI, and worrying about compute costs — which slows adoption. The promise is massive, but most customers haven’t scaled past pilot programs, leaving Microsoft with a slower revenue ramp while it invests heavily in infrastructure and model support.

⚡ The long game is still intact: Despite the near-term drag, Microsoft’s broader AI ecosystem — Azure, Copilot, enterprise integrations — remains strong. For investors, this is a reminder that AI monetization happens in waves: early hype, slow digestion, and then meaningful revenue once enterprises industrialize AI workflows.

🔁 Scott Bessent bets on backup plans: Scott Bessent argues the U.S. can effectively recreate its tariff regime even if the Supreme Court tosses the current emergency-powers framework. The takeaway: tariff policy isn’t hinging on one legal pillar — Washington has multiple pathways to keep trade pressure intact.

📜 Alternative trade laws on standby: If the ruling goes against the government, officials can pivot to other tools like the Trade Act of 1974 or the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. These options may differ in speed and scope, but together they can rebuild most of the same duties currently applied to imports.

⚠️ Implications for markets and supply chains: Hopes for an immediate tariff unwind look misplaced. Businesses could still face renewed duties under different statutes, meaning lingering uncertainty for import-heavy industries, inflation-sensitive goods, and multinational supply chains.

Bad jobs report caused by shutdown, deportations — not tariffs, Lutnick says (CNBC)

Bessent says Trump admin will be able to replicate tariffs even if it loses Supreme Court decision (CNBC)

Delta says government shutdown cost it $200 million, but forecasts strong travel demand into 2026 (CNBC)

Putin threatens Europe with war if it wants one, as Ukraine peace talks falter (CNBC)

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