TLDR

MARKET RECAP → The S&P 500 (VOO) notched its second down day Wednesday as software and semiconductor stocks sell off.

🤖 SU VS AI EXPECTATIONS → AMD (AMD) crushed Q4 and issued a “good, not insane” Q1 guide, the stock tanked, and Lisa Su popped up on TV to remind everyone that AI and data center demand are accelerating — the near-term pain is sentiment and expectations, not the core AI thesis.

📉 SOFTWARE’S $24 BILLION SHORT → Hedge funds have already made roughly $24 billion shorting software in 2026 and are pressing the bet, using AI disruption fears to hammer expensive SaaS and workflow names—great until sentiment turns, at which point this crowded short could turn into a face-ripping mean-reversion trade for everyone leaning the same way.

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up for free here.

MARKETS

Market Snapshot

Today’s S&P 500 Heatmap

Notable Earnings

For the week beginning February 2, 2026

TECH

Su Vs AI Expectations

Gemini

📉 AMD (AMD) beat on Q4, but the stock got smoked on “meh” guidance. Revenue and EPS topped estimates, yet the Q1 outlook of about $9.8 billion landed below the AI-euphoria whispers, and shares promptly went double-digit red. Wall Street wanted a Nvidia-style vertical line; AMD offered a slope.

🧠 Lisa Su went on CNBC to say AI demand is actually going gangbusters. She stressed that data center revenue is growing from Q4 into Q1, CPUs are “on fire,” and the AI order book is building faster than the company expected. The message: the guide is conservative, not a canary in the coal mine.

💸 For investors, this is a classic expectations hangover, not a broken AI story. AMD is still the clear No. 2 to Nvidia (NVDA), leaning on Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs plus deals with names like OpenAI and Oracle. The long-term setup hinges on 2026–27 Helios and MI400 ramps; today’s drama is about how fast that shows up in the quarterly model.

TECH

Software’s $24 Billion Short

Gemini

💰 Hedge funds are minting money on the software wreck. Market data show hedge funds have booked around $24 billion in profits shorting software stocks so far in 2026, as high-multiple names get de-rated in an AI panic. The trade has been so lucrative that many funds are adding to positions instead of covering into weakness.

🧨 AI fear turned from tailwind narrative to existential threat. A sharp selloff tied to Anthropic’s new Claude legal/workflow tools has investors rethinking whether traditional SaaS and workflow software can defend their moats. The S&P 500 software and services index has dropped nearly 13% over five sessions and is down about 26% from its October peak, making it ground zero for AI-disruption angst.

📉 For everyone else, this is a crowded macro bet, not a free lunch. Systematic and discretionary hedge funds are effectively short “old software growth” versus long AI infrastructure and megacap platforms, turning software into the funding leg of the trade. If AI fears ease or fundamentals stabilize, the risk flips to violent short-covering rallies in quality names, while structurally broken models could keep bleeding for years.

KEEP READING

The ‘AI to kill software’ narrative is wrecking the group. But Bank of America says buy this stock in the sell-off (CNBC)

Disney’s next CEO, Chipotle’s traffic problem, government shutdown ends and more in Morning Squawk (CNBC)

Trump refuses to be outdone by Europe, signing his own U.S.-India trade deal (CNBC)

NOTABLE POSTS

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Tools & Resources

  • OpenBB — AI-powered research and analytics workspace

  • Earnings Hub — Earnings calendar

  • Quiver Quantitative — Quiver allows retail investors to tap into the power of big data with insights into things like congressional trades as they are disclosed

  • Perplexity — Perplexity AI is an AI-chatbot-powered research and conversational search engine

  • The Market Ear — Live news, analysis and commentary on what moves markets and trading

  • Coinmarketcap.com — Crypto market data

  • Finviz — Financial visualizations

  • Trading Economics — Economic calendar

  • Dataroma — Track stock picks and portfolios of legendary value investors such as Warren Buffett

  • AltIndex — Alternative datasets to uncover unique insights

  • GFR Smart Stock Selector — Filters stocks to help investor choices

WE WANT YOUR FEEDBACK

How would you rate today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate

Investment advisory services provided by ML Wealth LLC. Investment Accounts Are Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • Investments May Lose Value. For important information and disclosures relating to the MoneyLion Investment Account, see Investment FAQs, Form ADV Brochure, and moneylion.com/investing. Funded managed investing accounts are subject to a monthly account fee of $1 (for accounts valued up to $5,000), $3 (for accounts valued over $5,000, and up to $25,000), or $5 (for accounts valued over $25,000).

This advertising email was sent to you because you have a MoneyLion account. If you would like to unsubscribe, please do so using this link. We respect your right to privacy. Please do not reply to this email with sensitive information, such as an account number, Social Security number, date of birth, bank account information, PIN, password, or Online ID. The security and confidentiality of your personal information is important to us. If you have any questions or want to read more, please visit our Help Center.

MoneyLion and Pathward do not provide, nor do they guarantee, any third-party product, service, information, or recommendation. The third parties providing these products or services are solely responsible for them, as well as all other content on their websites. MoneyLion is not liable for any third party’s failure with regard to those advertised products, services, and benefits. These advertised products and services may not be FDIC insured or bank-guaranteed, and may be subject to a different privacy policy than MoneyLion’s. You should check individual offers, products, and services to become familiar with any applicable restrictions or conditions that may apply. MoneyLion may receive compensation from third parties for referring you to the third party, their products or to their website.

The influencer, creator and other content provided in the MoneyLion App (“Content”) is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. All Content is intended to be of a general nature, does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity, and may not constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. MoneyLion is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or reliance on the Content. You should consult an appropriate professional if you require any legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Terms and Conditions for our subscriber referral can be found here.

More From Capital