TLDR 

MARKET RECAP → Stocks plunged again on Friday as China fired back with tariffs on U.S. goods, fueling worries that President Donald Trump's trade battle could trigger a global recession.

OPEC+ DEFIES OIL PRICE SLUMP → OPEC+ shocked everyone by pumping more oil despite tumbling prices, betting either Trump backs off tariffs, demand rebounds, or that market chaos is secretly their comfort zone. 🛢️

📉 TARIFFS PUSH RECESSION RISKS HIGHER, SAYS EL-ERIAN → Trump’s latest tariff spree raised recession odds to a coin flip, while Wall Street’s wishful thinking about multiple rate cuts faced a reality check—markets would be lucky to get even one, and the dollar might soon flex again if the global economy stumbles even harder. 🤷‍♂️

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TODAY’S TOP NEWS

OPEC+ Defies Oil Price Slump

🛢️ OPEC+ shocked markets by nearly tripling its planned oil production increase, sending prices down 6%, despite bearish forecasts due to Trump's aggressive tariffs sparking recession fears.

🎯 Analysts speculated OPEC's bold move aimed both at appeasing Trump, who wants lower oil prices to counter inflation from tariffs, and reminding overproducing members like Russia and Iraq to stick to quotas—or else.

🤷 The cartel confidently bet on a demand rebound later this year, though analysts warned a worsening tariff war could quickly force OPEC+ to hit pause or reverse course.

TODAY’S TOP NEWS

Tariffs Push RECESSION Risks Higher, Says El-Erian

🤔 Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian warned that Trump's extensive tariff plan significantly increased U.S. recession risks—now at an "uncomfortably high" 50%. Although the economy wasn’t doomed yet, growth was precariously close to stall speed, suggesting a difficult road ahead.

🥵 Markets underestimated how inflationary Trump’s trade policies would be, El-Erian noted. Contrary to hopes of multiple Fed rate cuts, he suggested the U.S. might be lucky to get even one this year.

🌎 Despite initial dollar weakness following tariff announcements, El-Erian forecasted this trend wouldn't last. He argued that if the U.S. economy stumbled, global markets would tumble even harder, reinforcing dollar strength.

KEEP READING

China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. (CNBC)

Actively managed ETFs hit $1 trillion milestone: Why tariff uncertainty may spark more growth (CNBC)

What Trump says he’s trying to accomplish with tariffs (CNBC)

Shoppers will pay more for bananas, coffee and toilet paper because of tariffs, trade group says (CNBC)

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